Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-30 0.016148 0.018320 0.020682 0.023445 0.026587 0.030054 0.034169
2025-04-06 0.012454 0.015358 0.018796 0.023170 0.028597 0.035119 0.043571
2025-04-13 0.010132 0.013220 0.017089 0.022304 0.029165 0.037913 0.049953
2025-04-20 0.009106 0.012446 0.016831 0.023029 0.031593 0.043059 0.059652
2025-04-27 0.008274 0.011770 0.016552 0.023594 0.033748 0.047932 0.069381
2025-05-04 0.007649 0.011278 0.016425 0.024291 0.036074 0.053177 0.080086
2025-05-11 0.006882 0.010481 0.015754 0.024086 0.037006 0.056424 0.088092
2025-05-18 0.006295 0.009877 0.015287 0.024104 0.038225 0.060143 0.097111
2025-05-25 0.005705 0.009203 0.014635 0.023748 0.038783 0.062837 0.104696
2025-06-01 0.005345 0.008852 0.014448 0.024095 0.040473 0.067443 0.115808
2025-06-08 0.004925 0.008359 0.013978 0.023919 0.041254 0.070584 0.124694
2025-06-15 0.004711 0.008190 0.014022 0.024600 0.043538 0.076439 0.138838
2025-06-22 0.004254 0.007568 0.013256 0.023828 0.043241 0.077846 0.145268
2025-06-29 0.003917 0.007129 0.012771 0.023511 0.043728 0.080693 0.154652
2025-07-06 0.003534 0.006571 0.012021 0.022633 0.043085 0.081381 0.159956
2025-07-13 0.003417 0.006491 0.012132 0.023369 0.045549 0.088106 0.177684
2025-07-20 0.003286 0.006374 0.012160 0.023942 0.047742 0.094490 0.195355
2025-07-27 0.003181 0.006296 0.012255 0.024650 0.050257 0.101720 0.215476
2025-08-03 0.002977 0.006005 0.011910 0.024442 0.050883 0.105180 0.227967
2025-08-10 0.002816 0.005785 0.011687 0.024461 0.051976 0.109688 0.243150
2025-08-17 0.002628 0.005496 0.011299 0.024099 0.052222 0.112416 0.254646
2025-08-24 0.002526 0.005375 0.011249 0.024451 0.054043 0.118687 0.274783
2025-08-31 0.002381 0.005153 0.010967 0.024272 0.054668 0.122376 0.289293